I Sold Every Stock Position I had Today Around 3:20pm EDT; +47.54%ytd Gain For Portfolio
I sold every stock position I had this afternoon after climbing fractionally from Friday’s close of +47.35%ytd. gain — to today’s close for me — at +47.54%ytd. gain. I am still somewhat in shock over these numbers; but, they are what they are. And, I felt there was no need to be “brave” going into what is likely a government shutdown of unknown duration. The consensus on the street seems to be that any such shutdown will be short-lived and is a buying opportunity. But, what happens if The Speaker of The House is deposed or the House is thrown into turmoil? And, while many so-called market experts were on today saying that past USG shutdowns showed little overall movement — the historical record is not so clear.
There have be 17 USG shutdowns since 1976 (the POTUS’s claims that this was something unique or unprecedented notwithstanding) — used by both parties by the way. They lasted anywhere from 1 to 21 days. During the last USG shutdown in 1995/1996, the S&P 500 fell 3.7% but rose 10.5% in the following month after the shutdown ended. In 2011 during the fight over the debt ceiling, the DOW fell 1700pts. or, nearly 14% between July 13 /Aug. 10, but, fully recovered those losses 5 months later. Finally, during the Fiscal Cliff “negotiations” the DOW fell 3.1% between Dec. 18-28; but, recovered on January 3, 2013 with a 300pt. rise.
The bottom line for me was — that I am up a staggering 47.54% since January 1 (9 months) and I felt no need to have to stand brave here. I intend to be very active if we do get any kind of selloff and will try and leverage in — rather than buy in all at once. The companies I had that have been “my stars” all year: ACAD, CLDX, SRPT, NPSP, GIMO — I still like and will buy back into — as well as several others. But, as of 4pm today, I am 100% in cash and sitting on a 47.54% gain year-to-date. I hope I can manage the next three months. All for now. V/R, RCP