North korea ask to talk. So North Korea Kim Yang Kwon and Hang Byung Ser came to Panmum Jum to talk with ROK Kim Kwan Jin and Hong Young Poy.It will be possible that North korea come to table because they do not have other choice. More then 60 years ago Admiral Joe’s comment is still working!Dilemma for Kim Jung Un will be If give to ammunitions to all military people, Kim Jung Un and his people not may sure the gun point will aim to where. If you do not trust some people i am sure that you do not want to give gun and ammunition.Kim Jung Un killed many military elite last 3 years because he cannot turst but now he have to give to ammunition who he can not trust at all.Oct 10th event, North korea may need excuse why they can not meet what they promise to North Korea people and what they propoaganda said to his own people.Economic, there are no megic at all. North Korea can do only Magic show but Magic show is not real.Please i just remind you that, in North korea, Domestic propblem is lot more important then external relationship. It means internal politics is lot more important then South-North Relationship.It may possible that North Korea need good reason to kill inside of anti Kim Jung Un people. ( During Culture revoltiontime. China punishment more then 3 million communist Party members but after 1978, more then 2 million people back to old position. Means Communist party just punishd people without real reason. ) I think almost same happening inside of North Korea.Best regards,
- 4 min read
At first glance, the recent events look like a textbook case of escalation. First, a landmine exploded in the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ), which divides the two Korean states. South Korean soldiers were maimed, and the South Korean military claimed that the mine had been stealthily installed by the North Koreans. In retaliation, the South’s military switched on massive loudspeakers, which had been silent since 2004, and began to broadcast propaganda across the DMZ, targeting the North Korean military personnel.
All these events might appear dangerous to foreigners, but this is not the case with Koreans who witness similar incidents occurring every few years. In 2010, North Koreans torpedoed a South Korean warship, the South Korean government retaliated with a ban on nearly all trade with – and aid to – their northern neighbour. Angry exchanges continued for a while, culminating in North Korean artillery shelling a South Korean island, killing some civilians.
It is clear by now that neither side wants war, since neither side has much to gain from it. The combination of geography and politics long ago has made a new Korean War a lose-lose option for both sides.
For the North Koreans, there are very little chances to win a war. Among military analysts, including those from countries close to North Korea, there exists a near consensus about the prospects of such a confrontation: the North would certainly lose, and very soon. Its military is armed with antiquated weapons, and it is poorly trained and badly run. Even the five or 10 low-yield nuclear devices the North Korean army possesses will not make much difference to the final outcome – even if somehow delivered to the intended targets (a big “if”, given the absence of delivery systems in North Korea).
Even though North Korea cannot win a war, it can still inflict damage on the South. Its nuclear devices may not be powerful enough to incapacitate the South Korean military, but they can kill hundreds of thousands of civilians. Even without the use of nuclear weapons, in thefirst hours of a full-scale confrontation, North Korea can destroy a significant part of Seoul.
|South Korean army soldiers ride on their truck in Yeoncheon, south of the demilitarised zone [AP]|
David S. Maxwell
Center for Security Studies &
Security Studies Program
Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service