North Korea’s Other Threat

David Maxwell:  A useful open source overview of the north Korean threat.  Please go to this link to view the excellent graphics that likely will not come through in this message:  http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/NORTHKOREA-MISSILES/010041BR2VH/index.html

North Korea’s Other Threat

The world is often alarmed at North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs, but thousands of Cold War-era artillery are also massed on the border with South Korea, capable of firing a massive barrage on the capital Seoul with little warning.

MAY 26, 2017

REUTERS/KRT

The two Koreas remain in a technical state of war since the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce, not a peace treaty. When tensions are high, Pyongyang often threatens to rain a “sea of fire” on Seoul and its 10.2 million people living 40 km from the border.

Threats from the North

Mentions of a “sea of fire” in North Korean media since 2000

Feb 2011
1 times

Conventional Firepower

The border dividing the two Koreas is one of the most heavily guarded in the world. The Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) is a 4-km wide buffer of landmines and razor wire stretching 245 km across the middle of the Korean peninsula. Heavy weapons and hundreds of thousands of North and South Korean soldiers are forward deployed on either side of the border. Some 28,500 American troops are also stationed in South Korea.

Pyongyang does not comment on its military deployment, but experts believe most of North Korea’s 13,600 guns and multiple rocket launchers are positioned near the DMZ. Its conventional arsenal includes large caliber guns and multiple rocket launchers that experts consider effective despite their mostly outdated design.

REUTERS/KRT

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Guns

Heavy guns, either towed or self-propelled, comprise the bulk of North Korea’s artillery. Many are variants of older Soviet and Chinese guns. The 170mm “Koksan” gun is a domestic design first seen by Western experts in 1979. It’s 60 km (37 miles) range is the longest of North Korea’s field guns.


REUTERS/KRT

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Rockets

North Korea is working to extend the reach of its mobile rocket artillery. The 240mm Multiple Rocket Launcher System (MRLS) can fire a volley of 12 or 22 long-range rockets from tubes mounted on a heavy truck. The 240mm launchers deployed near the DMZ have a range of 60 km. State media showed images of a new longer range 300mm launcher in 2016 but its deployment is not known.

 Hardened Positions

Northern artillery is potentially vulnerable to air strikes and counter-battery fire from South Korean and U.S. forces. To reduce that risk, the weapons are housed in Hardened Artillery Sites (HARTS) are built into caves or man-made bunkers. While some guns can fire from protected sites, heavier weapons risk detection because they must fire from outside a bunker or shelter.

For example, a 240mm MRLS can fire a 22-rocket salvo in 44 seconds but it can take a crew up to four minutes to lower the truck-mounted launcher, raise the ground stabilizing pads and return to hardened shelter. Experts suggest the North would not fire its weapons in an all-out barrage but stagger an attack to reduce the risk of counter measures.

N

Firing

plaforms

Hardened artillery sites (HARTS)

Many HARTS entrances face away

from the South, making them

harder to hit.

20 m

Map data: CNES / Airbus

Constructing a hardened site

Satellite images show the process of the hardened artillery sites being built.

Sept. 2004

Before construction

Google, DigitalGlobe

Hardened artillery sites did not exist.

May 2011

Excavation

Google, DigitalGlobe

Land is excavated at chosen sites.

Oct. 2013

Structures added

CNES / Airbus

Hardened structure

Hardened structures placed, likely made of concrete.

April 2014

Buried

CNES / Airbus

Firing platforms

Bunkers covered with earth. Firing points and rest of site completed.

What’s in range

If the North launched an artillery barrage on the South, military experts say long range weapons such as the “Koksan” 170mm guns and 240mm rocket launchers could reach Seoul. The map below shows the maximum range of these weapons plotted from hardened artillery installations and their theoretical reach into the Seoul metropolitan area.

Hardened artillery sites

Population density*

Low

High

60km artillery range

NORTH

KOREA

Nampo

Pyongsan

Haeju

Kaesong

Ongjin

Chuncheon

Seoul

SOUTH

KOREA

Incheon

Wonju

Ansan

20 km

Suwon

Taking cover

If there is an artillery attack, South Korea’s government says people should stay “calm and quickly evacuate to shelters”. A smartphone app from the Ministry of Public Safety and Security offers guidance to the nearest shelter, such as an underground subway station or shows safe areas below office and government buildings.

Underground shelters

Circles show underground shelters. The scale of the circle represents the size of the shelter.

DMZ

NORTH

KOREA

SOUTH

KOREA

Uijeongbu

Seoul

Goyang

The largest shelter in the

area, measuring

239,096 square metres,

is located underneath

an apartment complex.

Blue House

Incheon

Incheon

International

Airport

Seongnam

5km

Yellow Sea

There are 17,501 shelters across South Korea, with 3,321 civil defense evacuation facilities in the city of Seoul, according to the ministry.

Seoul’s shelters

combined

23.69 sq km

Size of

Central Park,

New York

Based on this combined area, the shelters would provide each of the city’s 10.2 million inhabitants an average of 2.31 square meters of space.

2.31 sq meters

per person

* Popluation density is based on the number of people per grid cell. The size of a grid cell is 100m x 100m at the Equator.
Sources: Curtis Melvin, U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS, Johns Hopkins University; Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability; International Institute for Strategic Studies; Global Security; Federation of American Scientists; RAND Corporation; KCNA Watch; LandScan, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; WorldPop Project, University of Southampton Global Health Research Institute; Ministry of Public Safety and Security, South Korea; OpenStreetMap; Reuters

By Simon Scarr, Weiyi Cai, Wen Foo and Jin Wu | REUTERS GRAPHICS
Additional reporting by James Pearson. Additional editing by Darren Schuettler.

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